The AGAD Framework

A behavioral classification system for portfolio construction. Four pillars that reveal how positions actually perform across market regimes—the missing layer between asset class labels and total portfolio view.

Four Quadrants, One Portfolio

AGAD organizes investments by their economic behavior across different market conditions, not by their legal structure or asset class label.

AGAD Quadrants

Four behavioral quadrants forming a coherent portfolio structure

AGAD Performance

Composite behavior across market regimes

Behavioral Classification Across Institutional Contexts

Each pillar manifests differently across institutional mandates—but the behavioral characteristics remain consistent.

AGAD Nomenclature

The Problem with Traditional Portfolio Construction

Asset class labels and factor models fail to provide actionable insight during market stress. Three fundamental issues persist:

Can't Visualize Regime Behavior

Asset class labels don't reveal how positions behave during growth vs. crisis vs. transition periods.

Hidden Concentration Risk

Traditional allocations mask correlation breakdowns that emerge during stress—exactly when diversification matters most.

No Actionable Framework

Statistical factor models are academically rigorous but operationally useless during market dislocations.

Four Behavioral Pillars

AGAD classifies positions by economic behavior, not legal structure. Each pillar serves a distinct role across market regimes.

Attack
25% Baseline
Primary Role
Capital appreciation through positive correlation to risk-on markets and long convexity
Capture explosive growth and asymmetric returns during bull markets and economic expansions. Accepts higher volatility for potential outsized gains (asymmetric upside with limited downside in quiet periods).
Guard
25% Baseline
Primary Role
Income generation and stability through positive correlation but short convexity
Collect reliable income while providing ballast during moderate drawdowns. Prioritizes quality and low volatility over aggressive growth (steady carry with capped upside).
Adapt
25% Baseline
Primary Role
Diversification through zero/low correlation and variable convexity
Dampen portfolio volatility through orthogonal returns, exploiting tactical dislocations without directional market bets. Provides regime-aware flexibility.
Defend
25% Baseline
Primary Role
Asymmetric crisis protection through negative correlation and long convexity
Provide "crisis alpha" during tail events, compressing drawdowns and enabling opportunistic re-entry. Structural protection, not tactical hedging.

Analyze Your Portfolio

Use our free tool to see how your current holdings map to Attack, Guard, Adapt, and Defend. No signup required.

Portfolio Analysis Tool

Subscribe to Research

In-depth articles on portfolio construction, regime analysis, and behavioral risk classification.

Branches and Vines